Iran roundup
Reuters:
European Union powers on Wednesday began circulating a draft resolution calling on the U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA) to report Iran's nuclear programme to the Security Council, which is empowered to impose U.N. sanctions.
Following is a summary of positions in the diplomatic poker match over the Islamic republic's atomic ambitions.
DIPLOMATIC GROUNDWORK
Britain, France and Germany, the resolution sponsors with U.S. backing, are striving to win over wary Russia, China and developing states before submitting the motion to the IAEA's 35-nation governing board for an emergency meeting in February.
Russian and Chinese backing is indispensable to any chance of robust action by the Security Council, where both wield vetoes as permanent members. Without the support of weighty developing states such as Brazil and South Africa, the EU3-U.S. move could be vulnerable to Iran's stance that the West is bullying it and depriving smaller nations of energy sovereignty.
WHERE KEY PLAYERS STAND
Moscow and Beijing have hinted they will no longer block referral since Iran resumed nuclear fuel research of potential use to make atomic bombs. But both are wary of punishing Iran, in part because of close trade ties with the Islamic republic.
Developing states have long opposed a crackdown on Iran for fear of a precedent curbing their access to nuclear technology.
Western diplomats hope big powers and developing states will come around to referral because of Tehran's increasingly hardline stance and a flurry of calls for Israel's destruction.
EMERGENCY BOARD MEETING
The IAEA board will convene on Feb. 2 at the request of the EU3, a month ahead of schedule, to decide on the resolution. Western diplomats are sure of a simple majority, but want at least a two-thirds margin to widen a Security Council mandate for possible action. Non-Western states including Russia, China, Japan and South Korea comprise 22 of the 35 board members.
WHAT HAPPENS IF IRAN LANDS IN SECURITY COUNCIL
The council would first try warnings to Iran to renounce uranium enrichment work in exchange for trade incentives and security guarantees. If Iran refused, the council could consider trade sanctions. But these would be difficult to realise as many countries aside from the United States rely on oil imports from OPEC giant Iran, the world's fourth largest petroleum producer.
IRAN'S DETERRENT
Iran has said its nuclear research aims only to generate electricity for an energy-needy economy. But while calling for a return to talks with the EU, Tehran has hinted it could play "the oil card" to weaken its critics' resolve. Emboldened by high prices and a global supply squeeze, Iran could pull part of its daily crude sales of 2.4 million barrels from world markets.
IF ALL ELSE FAILS, MILITARY ACTION?
The United States and Israel have mooted the possibility of military action against Iran if diplomacy fails. But most diplomats see little chance of attacks since Iran's nuclear plants are widely dispersed and well-defended.
European Union powers on Wednesday began circulating a draft resolution calling on the U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA) to report Iran's nuclear programme to the Security Council, which is empowered to impose U.N. sanctions.
Following is a summary of positions in the diplomatic poker match over the Islamic republic's atomic ambitions.
DIPLOMATIC GROUNDWORK
Britain, France and Germany, the resolution sponsors with U.S. backing, are striving to win over wary Russia, China and developing states before submitting the motion to the IAEA's 35-nation governing board for an emergency meeting in February.
Russian and Chinese backing is indispensable to any chance of robust action by the Security Council, where both wield vetoes as permanent members. Without the support of weighty developing states such as Brazil and South Africa, the EU3-U.S. move could be vulnerable to Iran's stance that the West is bullying it and depriving smaller nations of energy sovereignty.
WHERE KEY PLAYERS STAND
Moscow and Beijing have hinted they will no longer block referral since Iran resumed nuclear fuel research of potential use to make atomic bombs. But both are wary of punishing Iran, in part because of close trade ties with the Islamic republic.
Developing states have long opposed a crackdown on Iran for fear of a precedent curbing their access to nuclear technology.
Western diplomats hope big powers and developing states will come around to referral because of Tehran's increasingly hardline stance and a flurry of calls for Israel's destruction.
EMERGENCY BOARD MEETING
The IAEA board will convene on Feb. 2 at the request of the EU3, a month ahead of schedule, to decide on the resolution. Western diplomats are sure of a simple majority, but want at least a two-thirds margin to widen a Security Council mandate for possible action. Non-Western states including Russia, China, Japan and South Korea comprise 22 of the 35 board members.
WHAT HAPPENS IF IRAN LANDS IN SECURITY COUNCIL
The council would first try warnings to Iran to renounce uranium enrichment work in exchange for trade incentives and security guarantees. If Iran refused, the council could consider trade sanctions. But these would be difficult to realise as many countries aside from the United States rely on oil imports from OPEC giant Iran, the world's fourth largest petroleum producer.
IRAN'S DETERRENT
Iran has said its nuclear research aims only to generate electricity for an energy-needy economy. But while calling for a return to talks with the EU, Tehran has hinted it could play "the oil card" to weaken its critics' resolve. Emboldened by high prices and a global supply squeeze, Iran could pull part of its daily crude sales of 2.4 million barrels from world markets.
IF ALL ELSE FAILS, MILITARY ACTION?
The United States and Israel have mooted the possibility of military action against Iran if diplomacy fails. But most diplomats see little chance of attacks since Iran's nuclear plants are widely dispersed and well-defended.
posted by at 8:13 PM
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